Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, February 19, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active tropical cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 285 NM north-northeast of Rowley Shoals Atoll, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating low-level circulation (llc) as low-level cloud lines have started to wrap beneath a supportive convective structure near the assessed center.

The environment is favorable for development with low vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, moderate equatorward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensembles are in agreement that Invest 99S will continue to track
southwestward toward Rowley Shoals Atoll as it slowly intensifies over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 93P, which is located approximately 185 NM south-southwest of Port Moresby.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated low-level circulation with flaring convection along the northeastern semicircle of the system.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development moving forward with low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, moderate equatorward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models show steady model development southeastward, with the GFS currently being the most aggressive, over the next 24 hours as 93P moves further away from the Australian coast.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 187 NM south of Pago Pago.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center with flaring convection along the south pacific convergence zone.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is in a favorable environment for further development with low (10-15 knots) vertical wind shear, good equatorward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement with the steady development of Invest 92P over the next 24-48 hours with the GFS being the most aggressive, portraying a well-defined circulation with strong northerly winds by 48 hours as the system continues to consolidate.

Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles are in good agreement as well with the development and general southeastward track of Invest 92P over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.