Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 18, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 1181 NM south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 36, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) continuing to oppose the westerly vertical wind shear, as witnessed by an increasing decoupling of the vortex. Low-level circulation is nearly fully exposed, while the convective activity is contained within the southeastern sector of the system. Analysis reveals significant mid-level dry air intrusion, particularly over the western semicircle.

The environmental conditions are currently marginally unfavorable, with cool sea surface temperatures, moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear and significant dry air intrusion, offset only by a sustained, strong polar outflow.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 215 NM west-northwest of Darwin, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a well defined low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep flaring convection to the west-southwest. A scatterometry pass reveals 15-20 knot winds beginning to wrap into the llcc, with stronger winds of 20-30 knots approximately 150 NM to the west-northwest of the llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 99S is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knot)
vertical wind shear, and good equatorward and poleward outflow aloft.

Global models are not in agreement with the potential development of Invest 99S, however the ecmwf and gfs ensembles are in strong agreement with the potential development and general west-southwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 98P, which is located approximately 315 NM southeast of Pago Pago.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a wave like feature with a poorly defined circulation riding long the south pacific convergence zone (spcz). A scatterometery pass reveals an asymmetric wind field of 20-25 knot winds to the north of the circulation and 10-15 knots to the south.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 98P is in a marginally favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low (less than 15 knots) vertical wind shear, however, is offset by convergence aloft.

Global models are not in agreement with the potential development of Invest 98P. The gfs and ecmwf ensembles are in agreement that Invest 98P will continue to track south-southeast over the next 24-48 hours showing no signs of potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 338 NM west-southwest of Pago Pago.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass depicts a broad area of poorly defined circulation with cycling convection northwest and east-southeast of the assessed llcc. the South Pacific Convergence Zone, extending from the Coral Sea to French Polynesia, is aiding in the development of Invest 92P.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is in a favorable environment for further development due to very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15
to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement with the slow but steady development of Invest 92P. Both the ecmwf and gfs ensembles are in good agreement as well with the continued development and general southeastward track of Invest 92P over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.