Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, February 17, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 1202 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 34, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with an exposed low-level circulation center and persistent convection confined to the southern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a marginally unfavorable environment characterized by high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, significant dry air entrainment, and cool sea surface temperatures slightly offset by strong poleward outflow.

TC 14S is forecast to continue tracking southwestward, along the low-level to the east through 36 hours. After 36 hours, ridging is expected to build in to the south of the system, causing it to track westward throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to maintain intensity through 36 hours due to the robust poleward outflow. Gale-force winds will likely be confined to the southern semicircle of the vortex. Near 48 hours, further cooling sea surface temperatures along with significant dry air and high shear will cause the system to dissipate around 72 hours. Additionally, the poleward outflow channel is expected to weaken, further supporting the dissipation timeline.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 167 NM northwest of Darwin, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a well defined low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep flaring convection to the west-southwest. A ascat metop-b scatterometry pass reveals 15-20 knot winds beginning to wrap into the llcc, with stronger winds of 20-30 knots approximately 150 NM to the west-northwest of the llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 99S is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward and poleward outflow aloft.

Global models are not in agreement with the potential development of Invest 99S, however the ecmwf and gfs ensembles are in strong agreement with the potential development and general west-southwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

West and southwest Pacific

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 98P, which is located approximately 188 NM southwest of Pago Pago.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts an elongated circulation with flaring convection embedded within the south pacific convergence zone (spcz). A ascat metop-c image reveals 15-20 knot winds in the northern periphery of the system.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development moving forward with very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and a good equatorward outflow channel aloft.

Global models are in good agreement on development with a southeastward track over the next couple days. GFS is currently the most aggressive model overall, suggesting gale-force winds in the northern periphery in 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 93W, which is located approximately 80 NM east-northeast of Singapore

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts an area of weak and broad circulation with sporadic convection throughout the area. A partial ascat pass indicates overall weak winds with higher 20 knot winds being isolated to funneling near the Malaysian coast.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 93W is in a moderately favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, offset by weak poleward outflow aloft.

Both global and ensemble models do not indicate the area of convection 93W will consolidate at this time.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.