Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 11, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 875 NM southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 379 NM southwest of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia) is located approximately 317 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 16P is located approximately 94 NM south-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 21, sustained winds were 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a rapidly degrading structure, with deep convection shearing poleward of an increasingly exposed low-level circulation center.

TC 13S will track steadily south-southeastward over the next 12 hours under the continued steering influence of the str to the east. Thereafter, the system will accelerate south-southeastward in a tightening gradient between the current steering ridge and a mid-latitude trough approaching from the southwest.

For the next 24 hours, the system will weaken steadily under the influence of strong vertical wind shear and passage over cool water. Thereafter, favorable baroclinic interaction with the approaching trough will set a floor to the intensity at around 45 knots and yield an expansion of the wind field as the system completes extratropical transition.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 22, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with convective banding loosely wrapping into the low-level circulation center (llcc). the system remains large and has yet to further consolidate.

Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate radial outflow aloft, moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

14S is forecast to track southwestward, along the str to the southeast through 72 hours. Near 72 hours, ridging begins to build in to the south of the system, driving it further westward.

Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to marginally intensify to 65 knots at 24 hours due to lessened vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures remaining conducive. Sea surface temperatures drop by 48 hours, and dry air begins to entrain into the vortex, initiating a weakening trend. An intensity of 45 knots is forecast for 120 hours in response to the degrading environment.

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 17S with convection beginning to be more centralized over the low-level circulation center (llcc). Winds from Rowley Shoals has shifted to west-southwesterly, indicating that the system has passed to its south. Reported winds on station are steady at around 40 knots.

Environmental analysis indicates that 17S is in a highly favorable environment characterized by strong poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 17S is forecast to track southward over the next twelve hours as the ridging over Australia remains the primary steering mechanism. After 12 hours, the ridge begins to propagate eastward and ridging from the west extends to the south of the system, causing a southwestward track. During this time, overall steering influence is weak, so there is a large amount of uncertainty with the track through 48 hours. Near 60 hours, ridging over Australia builds back in and the ridging to the west moves westward, allowing 17S to begin accelerating south-southeastward as it makes landfall. The landfall location has shifted westward compared to the previous forecast and is currently forecast to occur near 60 hours.

Regarding intensity, 17S is forecast to begin intensifying as environmental parameters are highly conducive. Rapid intensification from 24-48 hours is anticipated in response to the increasingly warm sea surface temperatures near the coast. The current peak is set at 95 knots at 48 hours, but there will likely be an even higher peak, near 60 hours, that is unable to be represented in the forecast due to temporal restrictions. After the system makes landfall, terrain interaction will quickly erode the vortex, with dissipation around 96 hours.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 16P – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral imagery (msi) depicts a fully exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep convection sheared poleward and equatorward by 35-40 knot westerly vertical wind shear.

An upper-level trough and cool sea surface temperatures are driving the system to undergo subtropical transition,
which expected to complete within the next 12 hours.