Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, February 10, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 684 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 302 NM west-southwest of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 16P is located approximately 207 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 19, sustained winds were 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 13S (Vince) with an eroding eyewall and warming cloud tops, particularly in the northern semicircle. Northwesterly shear is evident and is the main culprit for the deformation. Another image revealed a vmax of 110 kts localized to the southwestern periphery and 98-101 knots within the other quadrants.

Environmental analysis indicates that 13S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by strong radial outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) northerly vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 13S is forecast to continue tracking generally southward, along the western periphery of the str through 36 hours. After 36 hours, the system will turn southeastward as it rounds the ridge axis and accelerates toward the baroclinic zone. Extratropical transition is now the forecast transition type due to the quick onset after 48 hours. A sharp long wave trough will cause the system to complete extratropical transition no later than 72 hours, possibly 60 hours.

Regarding intensity, 13S is forecast to continue weakening in response to cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear. Shear will rise to above 40 knots at 36 hours and sea surface temperatures drop around that same time. As a result, intensity is expected to drop to around 50 knots at 48 hours. After 48 hours, the weakening trend lessens due to baroclinic forcing.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 20A, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with tighter spiral bands of convection encircling the obscured low-level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a favorable environment characterized by moderate radial outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

The system has consistently been weaker than the estimates would suggest

TC 14S is forecast to soon begin tracking southwestward, along the northwestern periphery of a str to the southeast through the remainder of the forecast period. Near the end of the forecast, ridging will build to the south and drive the system more westward.

Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to intensify over the next 48 hours to a peak of 70 knots due to lessened vertical wind shear (vws) and a moistening environment. Poleward outflow is also expected to improve. After 48 hours, the system will begin interacting with cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing vws, causing weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 16P

According to the JTWC warning number 1A, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots