Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, February 8, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 799 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 246 NM south-southwest of the Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 15, sustained winds were 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows that tropical cyclone 13S (Vince) remains an impressive specimen, however it is starting to show signs of weakening. Enhanced infrared imagery shows a weakening western eyewall, but as of this writing, the eyewall is quickly solidifying once more. A microwave image provides a clue that this eyewall weakening may have been a result of an eyewall merge or eyewall replacement cycle (ewrc), though a lack of more recent microwave imagery precludes a full analysis. The microwave however showed a stationary banding complex (sbc) to the south, with a developing secondary eyewall merging on the western side of the inner eyewall. Model-derived soundings also suggest influence of moderate westerly mid-level shear which could help explain the eyewall weakening.

Environment remains overall favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, good radial outflow and low deep-layer shear.

TC 13S will track generally west-southwestward for the next 24 hours, along the northwestern side of the deep str positioned to the southeast. The str builds northward through the first 24 hours of the forecast, and TC 13S will slowly turn ever-more southward as it does so. A more abrupt change is expected by 36 hours, as a rapidly deepening area of low heights develops near 30S 60E, sweeping aside a migratory ridge and opening up a clear path poleward from TC 13S. Caught between the str
building north and moving east, and the trough to the west, TC 13S will quickly round the ridge and accelerate poleward after 48 hours.

An ewrc and moderate mid-level westerly shear will slowly erode the inner-core structure of TC 13S in the near-term, and the system is forecast to slowly weaken for the next 24 hours. A leveling off of intensity is expected for about 12 hours, up to 36 hours, as the system gets a boost from a slight moistening and a tap into strong poleward outflow into the base of a very strong jet max to the south. The fun does not last long however, and beginning around 48 hours, massive ingestion of dry air from the northwest accompanied by rapidly increasing shear, will mark the beginning of a rapid weakening phase.

The system passes south into cooler water by 72 hours, is overwhelmed by dry air in the mid-levels and begins to move under the subtropical westerlies aloft, marking the onset of a prolonged subtropical transition (stt) phase. The system will continue to rapidly weaken during stt and is expected to become fully subtropical no later than 96 hours. The system will eventually transition to an extratropical low, but this transition will be prolonged and occur far to the south.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 16, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) continues to struggle against persistent moderate easterly shear but there are early signs of a change forthcoming. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts cycling convection, with a dissipating convective mass to the eastern side of the circulation being replaced by a newly developing mass of convection over the western side. While the convective structure remains disorganized, the low level circulation (llc) remains well-developed, as depicted in a microwave image. The msi also depicts a broad region of relatively dry and stable low-level stratocumulus clouds across the southern and western periphery of the llc.

The environment is marginally favorable, with moderate easterly shear, moderate poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 14S will continue to track towards the west for the next 12 to 24 hours, though track speeds will begin to slow down as the str to the southwest builds northward. Around 24 hours, 14S will begin to track more equatorward, just how much so will depend on how far the str pushes northward and the exact orientation of the ridge. Regardless, TC 14S is forecast to track slowly equatorward from 24 through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the str to the southwest begins to rapidly weaken and move
west-southwestward, inducing TC 14S poleward. By 72 hours, a new str is expected to develop west of Learmonth, Australia, which will accelerate TC 14S towards the weakness in the ridging pattern to the southwest.

In terms of intensity, the presence of the dry, relatively stable airmass to the west and the persistent moderate easterly shear will inhibit significant intensification for the next 12-24 hours. Deep-layer shear is forecast to drop-off significantly after 24 hours, and the atmosphere is expected moisten, which will allow TC 14S to steadily, and potentially rapidly, intensify after 24 hours. The system taps into a strong poleward outflow channel after 72 hours, which will allow for additional intensification for about 24 hours, before decreasing sea surface temperatures, strong shear and dry air entrainment will begin to rapidly weaken the system.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 212 NM west-northwest of Wyndham, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of rotation with deep cycling convection building over the center, located just offshore of northwest Australia. The circulation center is quite small and offshore but the larger associated rotation straddles the coastline per surface wind observations from across the region. A scatterometry pass reveals a wind field of 20 knots in the northeast quadrant, with areas of 15-20 knot winds wrapping into the slowly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 96S is in a favorable environment for further development due to very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good outflow  aloft.

Global ensemble models are in good agreement that Invest 96S will continue to develop over the next 24-36 hours and track roughly parallel to the northwestern Australian coast. However, global models disagree on the progression and potential development of 96S. ECMWF is currently the primary model indicating development within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.