Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, February 9, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 679 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 265 NM southwest of the Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 17, sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a compact tropical cyclone (tc), with an inner-core structure measuring approximately 120 NM across. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates the eye has broadened significantly over the past 12 hours or so, now up to nearly 40 NM across. A series of microwave images over the past day, as well as the cimss mimic-tc animation and m-perc hovmoller diagram strongly suggest the system completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the last 12 hours and explain the significant broadening of the eye. A  microwave image depicts an increasingly asymmetric inner-core, with the eyewall being quite thin to the north, and
much wider to the southeastern side.

The environment remains marginal, with low deep-layer shear (mid-level shear is running from the west at about 20 knots), warms sea surface temperatures, and good radial and poleward outflow.

TC 13S will continue to track westward for another 12 hours or so, along an east-west oriented extension of the str which itself is positioned further to the southeast. The rapid development and deepening of a deep upper-level height center south of the Mascarenes will quickly erode the ridge extension while the str center itself shifts northward and reorients to a more north-south axis. These changes in the deep-layer pattern will open up a clear path poleward for TC 13S to drive towards. The turn will be relatively slow during the first 24 hours of the forecast, but the system will quickly accelerate as it rounds the axis of the ridge by 36 hours.

Tn terms of intensity, while Vince has completed an ewrc, it is unlikely to be able to re-intensify or see a reduction in the eye size due to it moving over steadily cooler waters, a consistent increase in deep-layer shear and decreasing moisture content. The forecast calls for relatively slow weakening
through 36 hours as the strong poleward outflow will offset the otherwise negative environmental effects for a time. By 48 hours, the intensity will drop off precipitously, as the system moves south of cooler water, shear increases to more than 40 knots, and very dry mid-level air moves in and engulfs the system. This also marks the beginning of subtropical transition (stt). The remnants of TC 13S will complete stt by or shortly after 72 hours as it races southeastward and continues to rapidly weaken. Extratropical transition (ett) is likely but not until well after 96 hours and south of 40S.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 18, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts an asymmetric and highly elongated structure with small pockets of cycling convection positioned roughly in the center of the northwest to southeast oriented cirrus shield. A microwave pass reveals that the lower-level structure is more
symmetrical than would be expected by looking at the msi. Low-level banding features are well-defined, wrapping into a defined center, with the strongest convective bands positioned across the northern portion of the circulation.

The environment is marginally favorable in the aggregate and improving. Shear is low to moderate and on the way down, sea surface temperatures are warm and outflow is steadily improving. Additionally, there are signs that the upper-level flow is splitting upstream of the core, and the localized shear is probably even less than the current cimss estimate, and the latest microwave imagery supports the fact that the low-level structure is better organized than anticipated, which could allow for rapid consolidation and development going forward.

Tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) is currently moving slowly northwestward along in a weak steering pattern ridging to the southwest, northwest and southeast and a weakness or trof passing to the south. What steering influence there is, comes from the northeastern periphery of the str centered to the southwest. This ridge is forecast to shift northward and reorient to a more north-south axis over the next 24 to 36 hours, while the ridge to the southeast will strengthen and drift westward. TC 14S will is expected to continue to drift slowly west-northwestward in this weak pattern through 36 hours.

At that point, a weakness develops in the ridge to the southwest, while the ridge to the east continues to build and move closer to TC 14S, enhancing the steering gradient. TC 14S will turn sharply poleward after 36 hours in response to these changes in the steering pattern and accelerate southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, the stage is being set for the system intensify, potentially rapidly, over the next 24 to 36 hours. Shear is forecast to either steadily reduce or remain relatively constant, but the system is already seen to be pushing back against the shear. The main factor driving the intensification trend will be the improvement in upper-level outflow, primarily westward and equatorward in the near-term. A brief leveling-off around 48 hours is expected due to a brief uptick in shear.

Another round of intensification will kick off after 48 hours, as the system begins to tap into a robust poleward outflow channel into the base of a sharp 200mb trof to the south, reaching a peak of at least 80 knots and possibly much higher. TC 14S will succumb to rapidly increasing shear and dry air intrusion after 96 hours, rapidly weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 166 NM west-northwest of Broome, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of rotation with deep cycling convection building over the center, located just offshore of northwest Australia. The circulation center is quite small and offshore but the larger associated rotation straddles the coastline per surface wind observations from across the region. A scatterometry pass reveals a wind field of 20 knots in the northeast quadrant, with areas of 15-20 knot winds wrapping into the slowly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 96S is in a favorable environment for further development due to very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good outflow aloft.

Global ensemble models are in good agreement that Invest 96S will continue to develop over the next 24-36 hours and track roughly parallel to the northwestern Australian coast. However, global models disagree on the progression and potential development of 96S. ECMWF is currently the primary model indicating development within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 95P, which is located approximately 443 NM east-southeast of Cairns, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad area of rotation with cycling convection. A scatterometry pass reveals a 25-30 knot asymmetric wind field approximately 150 NM north of the rotation, with 15-20 knots of winds closer to the low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 95P is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement with the seemingly quick development of 95P, with the ecmwf and gfs ensembles in agreement as well with the east-southeastward track over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.