Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 6, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 1319 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 302 NM east-southeast of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds were 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots

Tropical cyclone 13S has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours from 105 knots to the current intensity of 135 knots. As indicated in the animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery, TC 13S has maintained a very small (80 NM diameter) axisymmetric convective core, with an 18 NM round eye and weak spiral banding over the southeast quadrant.

The major shortwave trough associated with the shrinking break to the south is filling, with the jet max located on the eastern side of the trough, and propagating quickly eastward. Consequently, the str is expected to strengthen driving the system westward through 48 hours.

Due to highly favorable environmental conditions and the compact nature of the insulated core, TC 13S should maintain super typhoon strength winds (130-140 knots) through 36 hours. However, the very small system is susceptible to rapid fluctuations in
intensity through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the steering ridge will re-orient north-south, with a broad upper-level subtropical trough digging equatorward and enveloping the system, which will drive the system southward through 120 hours.

Environmental conditions will degrade in the extended period leading to a pronounced weakening trend, with increasing (30-35 knots) vertical wind shear and cooling
sea surface temperature values.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a large cluster of deep convection persisting over the western semicircle of a partially-exposed low-level circulation (llc). A microwave image reveals curved banding and a possible upper-level
circulation center tilted west of the low-level circulation center due to high easterly vertical wind shear.

Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable with the high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment hindering development. However, equatorward outflow has clearly improved over the past day, with a gradual decrease in vertical wind shear.

Tropical cyclone 14S will track west-southwestward through 36 hours under the steering influence of the str positioned to the south. After 36 hours, a series of major shortwave troughs will weaken the str leading a very complex, evolving steering pattern. A weak str to the west of the system will drive the system west-northwestward through 72 hours.

After 72 hours, the western str will erode, with a str building to the south, which will turn the system westward through 120 hours. Vertical wind shear is forecast to relax after  36 hours, with re-moistening of the system’s core, which will produce steady re-
intensification through 96 hours to a peak of 80 knots.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 142 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an elongated low level circulation center (llcc) with flaring convection along the southeastern periphery. Another image reveals the elongated and asymmetrical nature of the wind field with 35 knot winds confined to the southern semicircle.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions with high vertical wind shear of 30-35 knots, moderate poleward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures

Deterministic models show the circulation continuing to elongate within the SPCZ.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94S, which is located approximately 150 NM north-northeast of Europa Island

Animated multi-spectral imagery depicts an elongated area of turning with disorganized flaring convection just north of the center. A nearby ship observation shows a belt of south-southeasterly winds beginning to wrap into the Mozambique Channel with cyclonic rotation.

upper-level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for development moving forward with low (5-10 knots) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. However, a lack of upper level divergence and a relatively dry environment is currently hindering the system from development. Deterministic models show the circulation continuing to elongate within the SPCZ.

While global deterministic models do not yet favor this system, ensemble models are showing slight intensification on a westward track towards the coast of central Mozambique over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 142 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an elongated low level circulation center (llcc) with flaring convection along the southeastern periphery. Another image reveals the elongated and asymmetrical nature of the wind field with 35 knot winds confined to the southern semicircle.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions with high vertical wind shear of 30-35 knots, moderate poleward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures

Deterministic models show the circulation continuing to elongate within the SPCZ.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.