Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 7, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 805 south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 216 NM south of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 13, sustained winds were 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 13S (Vince) with a very symmetrical and compact central dense overcast surrounding the eyewall of a well-defined 20 NM eye. Cloud tops have slightly warmed over the past 6 hours.

Environmental analysis indicates that 13S is in a highly favorable environment characterized by strong radial outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

13S is forecast to continue tracking generally westward, along the northern periphery of the str through 48 hours. Around 48 hours, the ridge reorients to a north-south alignment, causing the system to track southward through 96 hours. After 96 hours, the system will track more south-southeastward as it begins to round the ridge axis.

Regarding intensity, 13S is forecast to begin gradually weakening over the next 48 hours in response to an increase in vertical wind shear.

After 48 hours, as the system tracks southward, environmental parameters will quickly worsen. Namely sea surface temperatures will drop at 96 hours. As a result, TC 13S will weaken throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin around 120 hours as the system starts to interact with the jet and enters the baroclinic zone.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with a degraded convective structure compared to 12 hours ago. The low-level circulation center (llcc) is now partially exposed on the eastern portion of the system. The cirrus filaments that were once very prominent are now dissipating.

Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a marginal environment characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, moderate to high (20-25 knot) easterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and warm sea surface temperatures.

14S is forecast to continue tracking southwestward over the next 12 hours as a long wave trough to the south breaks down the current steering ridge. After 12 hours, a ridge to the southwest is expected to build, causing the system to turn northwestward through 48 hours. Around 48 hours, the ridge quickly weakens and causes 14S to enter a weak steering environment through 96 hours.

Track speeds are expected to be very slow while the system is placed in the weakened steering environment. However, around 96 hours, a ridge to the southeast will build, causing 14S to begin accelerating southwestward though the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to marginally weaken further to around 40 knots, in response to the dry air being pulled into the system. This intensity will then maintain through 36 hours. Around 36 hours, the environment begins to moisten, allowing 14S to re-intensify. Poleward outflow also improves around 96 hours, further supporting intensification. An intensity of 65 knots is forecast near 120 hours as the vortex tracks southwestward.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 151 NM northwest of Wyndham, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad area of rotation with flaring convection to the south. A ascat metop-c scatterometry pass reveals a wind field of 20-25 knots in the north-northwest quadrant, with areas of 15-20 knot winds beginning to wrap more into the weakly defined low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 96S is in a favorable environment for further development due to very warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good outflow aloft.

The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble models are in good agreement that Invest 96S will continue to develop over the next 24-36 hours. However, global models disagree on the progression and potential development of 96S. The ECMWF is currently the primary model indicating development within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 782 NM west-southwest of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts 92P with an elongated low-level circulation center and convection streaming off to the southeast. Another
image reveals the elongated llc to have a swath of 35-40 knot winds within the southern semi-circle.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions with high vertical wind shear (vws) of 35-40 knots, strong equatorward upper-level outflow and cool sea surface temperatures (sst). Tropical transition of the system is analyzed to be unlikely.

Deterministic and ensemble models indicate weak model development, portraying the circulation continuing to elongate within the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on a southeast track.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a third area of disturbed weather being referred to as remnants of 15P, which is located approximately 334 NM south-southwest of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts disorganized flaring convection over an obscured low level circulation (llc). Another image reveals that the eastern periphery of the elongated circulation has attained gale force winds.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions with high vertical wind shear (vws) of 30-35 knots, strong equatorward upper-level outflow, and cool sea surface temperatures (sst).

Deterministic and ensemble models portray 15P to briefly sustain 35 knots until elongating in the south pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and quickly dissipating within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.