By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 13S is located approximately 543 NM northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots.
Satellite imagery shows the system has further consolidated as the central convection significantly deepened and become more symmetrical over the last 12 hrs.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm along-track sea surface temperatures, medium westward and poleward outflow and light to moderate vertical wind shear. The cyclone is tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge to the south.
TC Emnati will continue westward up to 12 hours, afterward, it will track more west-southwestward toward a weakness in the steering ridge with the approach of a transitory mid-latitude trough from the southwest.
By 120 hours, TC 13S will be almost making landfall over central Madagascar just south of Toamasina. The favorable environment is expected to carry through the mid-portion of the forecast track and fuel steady intensification to a peak of 95 knots by 72 hours.
Afterward, low ocean heat content near Madagascar caused by upwelling with the passage of another tropical cyclone a few days earlier, will contribute to a gradual weakening, down to 75 knots by 120 hours.