Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, February 2, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S is located approximately 213 NM east of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 13S is located approximately 204 NM south of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 438 NM north of Learmonth, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 15P is located approximately 127 NM northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 11S with central convection building over the center of the obscured low-level circulation center (llcc).

Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate westward outflow offset by moderate vertical wind shear and dry air in the mid-levels.

Environmental analysis indicates that 11S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

11S is forecast is to track generally westward through 24 hours. Around 24 hours, the ridge will continue to build, which will push the system to the northwest through 48 hours. Just before 48 hours, 11S is forecast to make landfall, near Toamasina. After 48 hours, the system will then track further westward, across the rugged terrain of central Madagascar. Near 84 hours, 11S will enter the Mozambique Channel and continue its westward track through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 11S is forecast to steadily intensify through 36 hours, to around 50 knots, due to the lessened vertical wind shear. After making landfall, terrain interaction will cause 11S to weaken as it crosses Madagascar. once within the Mozambique Channel, environmental conditions will greatly improve with very warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. This will allow 11S to re-intensify to around 45 knots at 120 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13S

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 13S with persistent convection forming over the center and a strong banding feature extending to the south.

Environmental analysis indicates that 13S is in a favorable environment characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. 13S is forecast to track southwestward, along the northwestern periphery of the str throughout the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 13S is forecast to steadily intensify to around 70 knots at 72 hours. After 72 hours, further intensification will be halted as sea surface temperatures become borderline. However, other environmental factors remain favorable. As a result, is forecast to maintain its intensity after 72 through 120 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with tight bands of deep convection wrapping into the obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). The ghz image shows a that the system has developed a microwave eye feature.

Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a favorable environment for development characterized by strong equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

14S is forecast to track generally westward, along the northern periphery of the str through 96 hours. Around 96 hours, the system will begin to turn slightly southwestward as it starts to round the ridge axis.

Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to nearly rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours to 75 knots. All environmental factors will be conducive for rapid intensification (ri). Intensification will then continue to a peak of 90 knots at 48 hours. After 48 hours, shear is expected to increase and a cold wake left behind by TC 13S will cause the system to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 15P with a large area of deep convection obscuring an elongated low-level circulation center. An ascat-b image reveals the elongated signature of the wind field with a broad area of 35-40 knot winds within the southern periphery.

Environmental analysis indicates that 15P is in a marginal environment characterized by strong poleward and equatorward outflow, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

15P is forecast to track towards the southeast, along the southwestern periphery of the str throughout the forecast period.

The marginal environment is expected to persist, causing 15P to struggle to further consolidate. As a result, 15P is forecast to slightly intensify to 45 knots, then maintain that intensity through 36 hours. After 36 hours, significant dry air entrainment will cause 15P to weaken. A drop to 30 knots is forecast to occur around 72 hours, as the system passes southwest of Fiji.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 537 NM north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully-exposed, consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with deep convection building over the center.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginal environment for development with high (30-35 knots) vertical wind shear, moderate equatorward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic and ensemble models  indicate gradual development over the next 48 hours, along an east-southeastward track, with GFS being the most aggressive.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.