Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, February 3, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) is located approximately 140 NM east-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 405 NM southwest of Cocos Islands
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 421 NM north of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 15P is located approximately 183 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida)
According to the JTWC warning number 15, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows the system, poised to make landfall into Madagascar, has deepened and the central dense overcast expanded as it totally obscured the low level circulation (llc).
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate dual outflow, and light vertical wind shear. Additionally, the dry air intrusion has subsided.
TC 11S will track west-northwestward under the steering str, making landfall over northeastern Madagascar around 12 hours, drag across the island, exit into the warm Mozambique Channel around 60 hours, then make a final landfall into central Mozambique before 120 hours.
The favorable environment may fuel a modest intensification in the near term; however by 12 hours will drop down to 45 knots just before landfall. The rugged terrain will then rapidly erode the system to 30 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, back on water, TC 11S will regain intensity up to 45 knots by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)
According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 13S (Vince) with spiral bands of deep convection wrapping into the obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). Easterly shear is evident by the convection drifting off to the west, away from the system.
Environmental analysis indicates that 13S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) easterly
vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
13S is forecast to continue tracking west-southwestward, along the northwestern periphery of the str through 72 hours. Around 72 hours, a secondary ridge will build south of the system, driving it further west-southwestward. it will continue on this trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period.
Regarding intensity, 13S is forecast to marginally intensify to 70 knots at 72 hours due to the persistent vertical wind shear hindering development and lack of a good outflow channel. Around 72 hours, poleward outflow is anticipated to increase and vertical wind shear decrease, allowing for further intensification. The main factor concerning intensity after 72 hours will be the trajectory of the track. If it is more westward vice southwestward,
the vortex will interact with warmer waters.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)
According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) with vigorous low-level clouds wrapping into the obscured low-level circulation center. A broad swath of convection can be seen extending westward over the system. Elevated easterly vertical wind shear is the culprit for the exposed eastern sector. Rapid intensification is seemingly less likely, primarily due to the vertical wind shear.
Environmental analysis indicates that 14S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.14S is forecast to track westward, along the northern periphery of the str to the southwest throughout the entirety of the forecast period.
Regarding intensity, 14S is forecast to further intensify to a peak of 80 knots at 12 hours. After 12 hours, a weakening trend will ensue. this is caused by a couple of factors. The first being the persisting vertical wind shear and the second being a track directly through the cold wake left behind by 13S. As a result, 14S is forecast to steadily weaken to around 50 knots at 120 hours.
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 15S
According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 15P with an exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) and convection being sheared off to the southeast.
Environmental analysis indicates that 15P is in an unfavorable environment characterized by strong poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, strongly offset by high (30-35 knot) westerly vertical wind shear.
15P is forecast to track southeastward, along the southwestern periphery of the str throughout the forecast period. Vertical wind shear is expected to rise above 40 knots around 24 hours and dry air entrainment will only worsen. These two factors will cause 15P to weaken below 35 knots by 48 hours, possibly sooner.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 812 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with persistent deep convection to the north and southeast of the llcc. A scatterometry pass reveals a strong 25-30 knot wind field in the north-northeastern portion of the semicircle, with bands of 15-20 knot winds beginning to wrap into the llcc.
Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear, and exhibiting radial outflow aloft.
Global models are in good agreement that Invest 92P will continue to slowly consolidate over the next 24-36 hours and track in a general southeasterly direction.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.