Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) / Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) / Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) / Tropical Cyclone 15P / Invest 92P – Pacific
Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 4, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) is located approximately 113 NM southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 1741 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 760 NM east-southeast of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 15P is located approximately 310 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji – Final Warning

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 17, sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc), which was used in an earlier relocation. An ascat pass revealed the llcc to be more elongated than previously known, reducing center position confidence. animated enhanced shortwave ir imagery depicts warming cloud tops as the system is increasingly interacting with the terrain to the west.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate dual outflow, and light vertical wind shear. Additionally, the dry air intrusion has subsided.

TC 11S will track west-northwestward under the steering str, making landfall over northeastern Madagascar around 12 hours, drag across the island, exit into the warm Mozambique Channel around 60 hours, then make a final landfall into central Mozambique before 120 hours.

The favorable environment may fuel a modest intensification in the near term; however by 12 hours will drop down to 45 knots just before landfall. The rugged terrain will then rapidly erode the system to 30 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, back on water, TC 11S will regain intensity up to 45 knots by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc), which was used in an earlier relocation. A metop-c ascat pass revealed the llcc to be more elongated than previously known, reducing center position confidence. animated enhanced shortwave IR imagery depicts warming cloud tops as the system is increasingly interacting with the terrain to the west.

TC 11S is forecast to make landfall over Madagascar within the next 12 hours and pass over land throughout 48-60 hours. The system is forecast to weaken due to the mountainous terrain interaction and dry air entrainment.

As the system re-emerges over water between 48 and 60 hours, it will encounter favorable environmental conditions. As long as it can maintain its momentum and the vortex structure, it has potential for modest redevelopment and intensification over the Mozambique Channel.

 

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds were 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a rather small-sized system with a warm spot or dimple feature, which is collocated with a nascent eye feature in the animated enhanced infrared (eir) imagery. A noaa-21 atms series indicates the eye is mostly located in the upper-levels. The system is asymmetric with the convection being mostly limited to the northern and western portions of the circulation, and shallow banding features capped by dry air in the southeastern portions.

The environment is marginally favorable, with the marginality derived from the cimss estimated shear values of 33 knots and the presence of dry mid-level air to the southeast.
However, the shear value is in question due to the system developing an eye feature without significant upshear convection, so deep-layer shear may in fact be less than what is currently
estimated. Otherwise, the environment is favorable with good westward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc), located on the northwestern edge of a ball of flaring deep convection. A microwave image revealed an irregular and elongated llcc, with deep convective bands along the southern periphery and shallow banding features wrapping in from the north.

The environment is trending rapidly towards the unfavorable side of the scale, with westerly shear now exceeding 35 knots, and mid-level dry air intruding from the north and west, though poleward outflow remains robust and sea surface temperatures are warm. The vortex is sharply tilted and being overrun by dry air at a rapid clip. The latest phase classification worksheet indicates the system is a borderline subtropical or hybrid system already.

 

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 308 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Animated multi-spectral imagery depicts a compact, but elongated low level circulation center (llcc) with persistent deep convection building over the center as well as prominent curved convective banding to the northern and southern periphery. Another pass indicates strong 24-30 knot winds wrapping into the  center.

Environmental analysis indicates that invest 92P is in a relatively favorable environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and strong radial outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 92P will continue to consolidate over the next 24 hours and track in a general south-southeast direction

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.