By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) is located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is located about 625 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)
FRANK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY
Frank is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected overnight, with a faster rate of strengthening forecast Thursday through Friday. Frank could become a hurricane late Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)
COMPACT GEORGETTE A LITTLE STRONGER
Georgette is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest and southwest with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so, followed by little change in intensity thereafter.
Georgette is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center.
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There are no tropical cyclones
An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W is located approximately 415 NM northwest of Guam.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a deepening and expanding system with signs of formative banding in the northwest quadrant feeding into an assessed low level circulation.
Analysis indicates an overall favorable environment with a westward transiting tropical upper tropospheric trough that is enhancing poleward outflow.
Additionally, vertical wind shear is low (10-15 knots) towards the center of the low level circulation with very warm sea surface temperatures.
Numerical models are in general agreement that the system will track northwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95S is located approximately 250 NM northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery show a broad system with scattered convection in the western periphery. There is weak formative banding within the north-northwestern quadrant wrapping into an assessed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment for development supported by strong poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by strong (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Ensemble and deterministic models are in general agreement that the system will track south-southwestward and deepen over the next 36-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.