Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) / Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) / Tropical Cyclone 01S / Invest 93W / Invest 94W
Thursday, July 28, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) is located about 680 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is located about 870 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 01S is located about 147 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia

 

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)

FRANK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY

Frank is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

 

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)

COMPACT GEORGETTE STILL MOVING WESTWARD

Georgette is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Georgette is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

 

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing

 

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 01S

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts consolidating system, with persistent deep convection and improved convective banding over the eastern and southern semicircle. A microwave pass indicates the deep convection is now wrapping into the assessed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates the system is in a favorable area for development, with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, which is being offset by vigorous poleward outflow.

As the system weakens and becomes more shallow, it will begin tracking to a more westward direction influenced by a low to mid-level anticyclone poleward of the center which becomes the more dominate steering feature.

After 48 hours, TC 01S will begin to move westward into an environment which will be much less conducive for further development as vertical wind shear increases along with a substantial in flux of dry air. These impeding factors will result in the system deceasing below warning criteria between 72 and 96 hours.

 

>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W is located approximately 513 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depict deep convection directly over the low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates the invest is in a favorable area for development defined by low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and poleward outflow.

Additionally, a westward transiting tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) cell is enhancing poleward and equatorward outflow, yet is offset by some dry air entrainment.

Numerical models are in general agreement that the system will track northwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours downgraded to medium.

 

>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W lies in a complex environment, on the northern edge of a monsoon gyre feature, in an area of enhanced windflow that extends to the south-southeast all the way to near 20N.

The low level circulation center is relatively ill-defined, but animates shortwave infrared satellite imagery and a series of earlier partial scatterometer passes suggests that a small low level circulation center in fact exists under flaring disorganized convective activity.

The environment is overall favorable, with the system lying under an area of divergent easterly flow with a weak tap into some poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

The main inhibiting factor is the lack of a well-defined low level circulation center, and the fact that the system lies along the northern periphery of the monsoon gyre which is slowing the consolidation of the low level core.

Model guidance suggests the system will move relatively quickly to the northwest, turning more westward and ultimately track across the northern Ryukus, south of Kyushu.

Intensity guidance is mixed, with the GFS suggesting developing into a strong depression or weak tropical storm, while ECMWF depicts little in the way of intensification.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.