Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, December 27, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 05S is located approximately 109 NM south of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S

According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots

Tropical cyclone 05S is indubitably on a steady weakening trend as indicated in the animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery. Deep convection has fragmented and is now sheared over the western semicircle of a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). A color composite microwave image reveals shallow banding over the southern semicircle wrapping into the western quadrant of a weakly-defined llcc, with sparse, disorganized convection.

Environmental conditions have degraded with high (25-30 knots) easterly to east-northeasterly vertical wind shear, offset slightly by moderate poleward outflow.

TC 05S is currently transitioning from the ner to the low-level subtropical ridge (str) building to the east. Therefore, the system is turning onto a more southeastward trajectory over the past six hours. TC 05S is forecast to track generally southward through the forecast period under the steering influence of the str to the east.

The system will likely re-strengthen briefly diurnally before significant weakening occurs. TC 05S will dissipate no later than 36 hours but could possibly dissipate at an earlier time due to persistent vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest  91P, which is located approximately 352 NM north-northwest of Nadi, Fiji

Animated himawari-9 infrared satellite imagery indicates a compact but well-formed area of deep convection embedded within the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) has been rapidly developing overnight. The first few frames of daylight in the visible channel reveals pulsating overshooting cloud tops near the center of the central dense overcast, with formative banding structures trying to become established. The current intensity is assessed to be 30 knots based on the limited data available.

91P is currently in a narrow channel of favorable environmental conditions characterized by low vertical wind shear (05-10 knots), good divergent poleward outflow, moist mid-level relative humidity, and warm sea surface temperatures. Numerical guidance does not call for tropical cyclone formation, however the available 12z global models are not handling the current analysis well, which is often typical of systems within the spcz. That said, it is possible Invest 91P may have already reached its peak and has only a limited window for additional development as it tracks southeastward, due to drier air that should begin to encroach over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.