By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Celia)…is located about 385 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
CELIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Celia) Advisory number 42
According to the National Hurricane Center…Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
>>> Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea
According to the JTWC…an area of convection has persisted approximately 262 NM east of Manila, Philippines.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad easterly wave with widespread disorganized convection approaching Luzon.
The system is expected to move over Luzon and as it does so, it will experience some degradation in overall organization, but once it emerges into the South China Sea, 97W is anticipated to rapidly consolidate.
Environmental analysis indicates conditions favorable for development over the next 48-72 hours with low to moderate (10 to 20 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good radial outflow.
Global deterministic and ensemble models have come into better agreement over the past couple of runs, and all support development of this system as it passes over Luzon and enters into the South China Sea.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to low.