Tropical Cyclone 03E (Celia) / Invest 97W / Invest 94A
Monday, June 27, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Celia)…is located about 580 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

CELIA EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Celia) Advisory number 46

According to the National Hurricane Center…Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Tuesday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles offshore the coast of southern Mexico is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly to the north
and west of its center.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for some gradual development during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

>>> Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea

Invest 97W

According to the JTWC…an area of convection (invest 97A) has persisted approximately 83 NM northwest of Manila, Philippines

Animated enhanced multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad easterly wave with widespread disorganized convection approaching Luzon.

The system is analyzed as an open wave at the surface, the middle and
upper atmosphere show hindrance from shear.

The system is expected to track over Luzon as if it was a speed bump and emerge on the western side in the South China Sea with gained vorticity and less shear, thus it is anticipated to rapidly consolidate.

Environmental analysis indicates conditions favorable for development over the next 48-72 hours despite moderate to high (20 to 30 knot) vertical wind shear.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and equatorward outflow is respectable.

Global deterministic and ensemble models concur, and all support development of this system as it passes over Luzon and enters into the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Invest 94A

According to the JTWC…an area of convection (Invest 94A) is now located NM 455 NM east-southeast of Muscat, Oman.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) shows that an unseasonal North Arabian Sea tropical circulation has developed to the southwest of the Gujarat Peninsula.

MSI indicates a fairly consolidated low level circulation with flaring deep convection over the assessed center extending along the northwest and southeast periphery of the system.

94A has blossomed after tracking away from under the immense (25 to 40 knot) vertical wind shear induced by the tropical easterly jet into an area of upper-level divergence, and this transformation has the system in a bubble of low (10 to 15 knot) vertical wind shear with good equatorward outflow. Sea surface temperatures remain warm, providing ample energy for convective development.

The system is expected to move west-northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours, and while the environment is generally favorable at present, as the system moves west it will encounter steadily increasing vertical wind shear, and is forecast to steadily weaken over the next 24 hours.

Global deterministic and ensemble models concur, and all support the fact that the system has likely already peaked and may maintain its current intensity for a short period before steadily weakening as it moves towards Oman.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.