By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 01E (Agatha)…is located about 190 miles southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico
National Hurricane Center Advisory number 5
TS AGATHA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW…SUNDAY IS YOUR LAST DAY TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE
TS Agatha is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. The storm should
move erratically overnight, followed by a northeastward turn later on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday, and further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.