By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 01E (Agatha)…is located about 140 miles southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico
National Hurricane Center Advisory number 9
AGATHA EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY
Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected overnight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph with higher gusts. Agatha is forecast to strengthen into a category 3 hurricane Monday and maintain that intensity through landfall. Rapid weakening is expected over southeastern Mexico Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight or early Monday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.