By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 01E (Agatha)…is located about 40 miles north-northeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico
National Hurricane Center Advisory number 13
AGATHA COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY
Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther inland. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later tonight, and dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through the day.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by later today through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
Mexican states of states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.