Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 3, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 04L…is located about 125 miles south of Key West, Florida…according to the NHC Advisory number 5

Tropical Cyclone 04L

DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday.

On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WINDS: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are currently occurring over the Florida Keys.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River, FL…3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL…2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 ft
Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week.