Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 4, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 04L (Debby)…is located about 125 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida…according to the NHC Advisory number 9A

Tropical Cyclone 04L (Debby)

DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION…MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Sand Key in the Florida Keys.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WINDS: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL…6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL…4-7 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL…3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River, SC…2-4 ft
Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through this morning. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> East of the Windward Islands:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent