Potential Tropical Cyclone One – Atlantic
Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, June 18, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


Potential Tropical Cyclone One


Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 5


Located about 380 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas

The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 415 miles to the north of the center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent


RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep South Texas on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:

>>> Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Southwestern Atlantic

>>>  An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..low…20 percent