Tropical Storm Alberto / Invest 92L – Atlantic
Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, June 19, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


Tropical Storm Alberto


Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10A


Located about 290 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas

Alberto is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On this track, the center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center of Alberto reaches land later this morning. Weakening is expected after the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today or tonight.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 460 miles (740 km) out from the center.


RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today through this morning.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:

>>>  A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Southwestern Atlantic

Invest 92L

>>>  A small area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..low…30 percent