Tropical Cyclone Beryl / Invest 96L – Atlantic
Monday, July 1, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, July 1, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone Berylaccording to the NHC advisory number 14A is located about 775 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica

 

Tropical Cyclone Beryl

CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK

Beryl is forecast to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicates that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations
in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday. Some more weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical
storm warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 96L

>>>  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for additional development of this system while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still monitor the progress of this system, with heavy rainfall possible mid-week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent