Tropical Cyclone Beryl / Invest 96L – Atlantic
Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, July 2, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone Berylaccording to the NHC advisory number 18A is located about 250 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica

 

Tropical Cyclone Beryl

DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY

Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two.

However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late today. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today
into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

East of the Windward Islands:

Invest 96L

>>>  Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur as it moves westward at 20 to 25 mph across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent