By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, October 13, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Typhoon 15W (Bolaven)…is located approximately 422 NM north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico…
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Typhoon 15W (Bolaven)
According to the JTWC Warning number 28…
Sustained winds were 85 knots…with gusts to near 105 knots
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows the system continued to severely erode and elongate as it accelerated northeastward deeper into the strong prevailing westerlies on the poleward side of the steering ridge. a cluster of warm pixels of a recently obscured eye is still evident. the initial position is placed with high confidence based on the remnant eye in the eir loop.
Analysis indicates a highly unfavorable environment with the strong poleward outflow offset by increasing vertical wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and dry air intrusion at the lower levels.
Typhoon Bolaven will continue to accelerate northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge under the strong westerlies. Tthe highly unfavorable environment will continue to rapidly erode the system. Concurrently, TY 15W has begun extra-tropical transition, and by 24 hours, will completely transform into a 75-knot hurricane-force cold-core low.