By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 24, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 14E…is located about 1045 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 14E
According to the NHC advisory number 5…
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue at a little faster forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather that are under investigation by the CPHC
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 450 NM south of Hong Kong
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad area of elongated low level turning of west-southwest to east-northeast orientation with deep convection along the western periphery.
Environmental analysis indicates that 91W is in a favorable environment for development with good equatorward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement that 91W will track slowly westward and continue to develop over the next 12-24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92W…which is located approximately 267 NM northeast of Guam
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an exposed low level circulation center with shallow formative banding and isolated elements of flaring convection in the northern semicircle.
Environmental analysis indicates that 92W is in a marginally favorable environment for development with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global numerical models agree that 92W will track westward and continue to develop over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.