By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There are no active tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the National Hurricane Center…although there is one area of disturbed weather under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 310 NM northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depict consolidating convection obscuring a broad low level circulation.
Invest 91P is primarily supported by nearly radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, and development is marginally offset by moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models generally agree that invest 91P will meander south-southwestward as it continues to consolidate and strengthen. GFS ensemble members continue to take a more aggressive solution for intensification, while the ECMWF ensemble members remain consistent on only a slight intensification of the system in the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.