By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Post-Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 140 miles east of Halifax, Nova Scotia – Last Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)…is located about 50 miles west-northwest of Faial Island in the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 385 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Hermine)…is located about 315 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
Post-Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)
NHC Advisory number 39
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS FIONA NEARS
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 46 mph (74 km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday morning, and then move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through Saturday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h) was recently observed at Beaver Island, Nova Scotia.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in Canada within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250 mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.
Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).
Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the eastern United States coast, Bermuda, and the northwestern Bahamas. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)
GASTON EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY
NHC Advisory number 15
A turn to the west is anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores through this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Gaston could become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the western and central Azores through today.
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western and central Azores.
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY
NHC Advisory number 4
Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains begin as early as Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this rainfall.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Hermine)
HERMINE HEADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC…HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS
NHC Advisory number 3
Hermine is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast should occur by late Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin by tonight, and Hermine could become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 (50 to 100 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 6 inches (150 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite unfavorable upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent