Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona) / Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston) / Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian) / Tropical Cyclone 10L (Hermine) / Invest 99L
Saturday, September 24, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 80 miles northwest of Port Aux Basques, Newfoundland – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)…is located about 220 miles west of Faial Island in the Azores

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 230 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Hermine)…is located about 460 miles north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona) – Last Advisory

NHC Advisory number 42

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED IN ATLANTIC CANADA

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13km/h). A faster north-northeast or north motion is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea late tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Gale-force and storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of Atlantic Canada through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall across portions of Atlantic Canada, with storm total maxima as high as 10 inches (250 mm) across Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland. Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)

GASTON CONTINUING WESTWARD

NHC Advisory number 18A

Gaston is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn to the southwest is forecast by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone overnight or Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the western Azores for the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3 inches across the western and central Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)

IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

NHC Advisory number 7A

Ian is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 10 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Hermine)

HERMINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO

NHC Advisory number 6

The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, a turn toward the northwest is expected.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a remnant low in a day or so.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches (250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.

Central Tropical Atlantic:

Invest 99L

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing only limited shower activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves very little through the early portion of next week.

Environmental conditions could become marginally more conducive for development by the middle portion of next week, when the system is forecast to begin moving slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent