Post-Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston) / Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian) / Invest 99L
Sunday, September 25, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)…is located about 510 miles west of Faial Island in the Central Azores – Last Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL GASTON

NHC Advisory number 23

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast for the next day or two. The remnants of Gaston are forecast to dissipate within the next 48 h.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)

IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN WESTERN CUBA

NHC Advisory number 12

Ian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Invest 99L

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing persistent, but disorganized, showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible while it initially meanders for the next couple of days and then moves slowly north-northwestward late this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent