By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 105 miles east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)
IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY…SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON
NHC Advisory number 16
Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay…5-10 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor…4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay…2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands today.
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday:
Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5 inches, especially along the south coastal region.
Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.
Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15 inches.
Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.
Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday.
Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday.
>>> Invest 99L
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms.
While the system has not become better organized today, environmental
conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the system to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. Further development will become less likely by the end of the week due to strong upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the next day or two and then turn north-northwestward by early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent