Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian) / Post-Tropical Cyclone 11L
Thursday, September 29, 2022

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 185 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina

Post-Tropical Cyclone 11L…is located about 950 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – Last Advisory

 

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)

IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS IN THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW

NHC Advisory number 30

Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night.

On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian could strengthen a little more before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported west of the center by a NOAA and Saildrone Inc. research mission vessel.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River…4-6 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington…3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet…2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout…1-3 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor… 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Low country of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across east-central and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Post-Tropical Cyclone 11L – Last Advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW

NHC Advisory number 6

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a general northwestward motion is expected until the remnant low dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate within the next day or so.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent