Tropical Cyclone 12L / Invest 92L
Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 12E…is located about 430 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 12L

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS…EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED

NHC Advisory number 2

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a general motion towards the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast and the system is expected to
dissipate in a couple of days.

The system is expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

>>> East of the Windward Islands:

Invest 92L

A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicated that the system did not yet possess a well-defined
circulation center, with the majority of the shower and thunderstorm
activity displaced to the southeast of the broader rotation.

However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next several days if the system remains over open waters while
moving westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and
into the Caribbean Sea. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning, if necessary.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent