Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona) / Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)
Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 1315 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)…is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the Azores

 

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)

FIONA’S WIND FIELD GROWING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Fiona is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda Thursday night, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through early Friday.

Some weakening is expected to begin on Friday, but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force winds Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

NOAA buoy 41047, about 55 n mi north-northwest of the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions are possible, on Bermuda by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas.

These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)

GASTON MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH

Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the east is expected later today, and a slower southeastern or southward motion is forecast by Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Winds to gale force are possible in the western Azores later this week.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in organization since this morning.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.

The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands tonight, and northern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into tonight’s forecast models.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move over the far eastern Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium 50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

East Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Despite a dry environment, slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent