By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Danielle) is located about 625 miles northwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Earl) is located about 405 miles south of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Danielle)
DANIELLE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY
Danielle is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast Thursday and Friday, followed by a motion toward the southeast over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Danielle should begin to weaken tonight and transition to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening anticipated through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
Tropical Cyclone 06 (Earl)
EARL POISED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS… …HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA
Earl is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn towards the north-northeast is expected overnight and then more to the northeast during the day on Thursday as the system gradually accelerates.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday afternoon.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Friday.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
>>> African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent