By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Earl) is located about 95 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 06 (Earl)
OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE GUSTS ON BERMUDA
Earl is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northeast tomorrow.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Re-strengthening is still possible, and Earl could become a major hurricane by tomorrow. Thereafter, some weakening and a transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone is forecast on Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda this evening.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend.
>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:
A low pressure system located about 1300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that is displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center by strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for additional development. However, an increase in organization of the system could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical cyclone in the next day or so as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has recently emerged off the west coast of Africa this morning and is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development as the system moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent