By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 45 miles south-southeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
EYE OF FIONA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO
Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the eastern portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently measured at Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and are spreading westward across Puerto Rico. These conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight, and in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday..
RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches on St. Croix.
Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.
Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly near the far east coast.
Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.
Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.
These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Southern coast of Puerto Rico…1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra…1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands…1 to 2 ft
Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic.
SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and CaicosIslands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the central subtropical Atlantic in association with a trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early or middle part of this week while it moves generally northward, remaining over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent