Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)
Monday, September 19, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 130 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island

FIONA STRENGTHENING

Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday.

Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico this morning, and over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20 inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of 8 inches. Storm Total up to 15 inches in the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast of Puerto Rico.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United States through mid-week. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little since yesterday evening in association with an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Some slow development, however, is possible during the next couple of days before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week. The system should generally move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while the system approaches the Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent