By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There are no active tropical cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean
Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized near a low pressure system located about 400 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and a tropical depression
appears to be forming.
If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated on this system overnight or early Tuesday. The
disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…100 percent
>>> South of the Baja California peninsula:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become limited this
Some slight development of this system is still possible over the next day or so while it moves little.
After that time, interaction with the developing low pressure area to the east of this system is expected to prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There are no tropical cyclones
An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W is located approximately 127 NM north of Guam.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows flaring convection and fragmented banding around a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for development with robust, single-channel outflow being enhanced by a low pressure cell to the northeast, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Numerical models are in general agreement that 93W will track northwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.