Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L
Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L…located about 330 miles east of Trinidad

DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA

Advisory number 6A

The system is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.

On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of
Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Hazards affecting Land

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela:4 to 6 inches.

WIND:Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday night and early Thursday.

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.

This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this
week.

The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward Islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

>>> Northern Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two.

Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday.

Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent