Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bonnie)
Friday, July 1, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bonnie)…located about 75 miles south of Bluefields, Nicaragua

CENTER OF BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA

Advisory number 18

Bonnie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into Saturday night.

A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin late Saturday night or on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that before landfall maximum sustained winds increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Weakening is likely while the center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The storm is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern Pacific Saturday night and Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Hazards affecting Land

RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and these will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

>>> Near the Southeastern US:

Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system is located along the coast of southern South Carolina near Beaufort.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next couple of days.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern
Georgia and the Carolina’s through tonight and into Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

>>> Near the Windward Islands:

A tropical wave located over the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected to occur while it moves west-northwestward into unfavorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent