Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L
Monday, June 27, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L…located about 590 miles east of Trinidad

DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING

Advisory number 2

The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through Thursday.

On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days if the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the north of the center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Hazards affecting Land

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia:

1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela:4 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday.

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions could become conducive for some gradual development later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

>>> Northern Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.

Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent