Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)
Sunday, September 17, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 17, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)…is located about 990 miles east-southeast of Bermuda


Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)


According to the NHC advisory number 11…

Nigel is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel is then forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Nigel will likely become a hurricane overnight, and is forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Western Tropical Atlantic…

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near the southeastern coast of the United States late this week.

This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent