By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Remnants of Subtropical Cyclone 23P is located approximately 231 NM southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.
According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
Satellite and microwave imagery depicts a low-level center that is fully exposed, with sheared convection to the southeast.
Environmental analysis depicts an unfavorable environment for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone characterized by strong (25+ knot) vertical wind shear with 23P slowly embedding itself in the upper level westerlies and cool sea surface temperatures.
With 23P embedding itself in the mid-latitude jet, global models agree that 23P will transition to an extratropical system as a major short wave trough approaches from the southwest in 52-70 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains low.