By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Invest 23P is located approximately 200 NM southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.
According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
Satellite and microwave imagery depicts a low-level center that is fully exposed,
little convective activity, with the subtropical jet stream to the south.
Environmental analysis depicts an unfavorable environment for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone characterized by strong (25+ knot) vertical wind shear, and cool sea surface temperatures.
Global models agree that Invest 23P will transition to an extratropical system as a major short wave trough approaches from the southwest in 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains low.