By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 09P is located approximately 492 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia
According to the JTWC warning number 6…sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots
Satellite imagery depicts an increasingly disorganized system with eroding deep convection and a weakly defined low-level circulation (llc). A color composite microwave image revealed a broad llc with a line of deep convection to the northwest.
TC 09P is located just east of an upper-level point source with divergent flow along a west-northwest to east-southeast axis, however, convergent flow south of the system is restricting poleward outflow. Additionally, there is significant dry air present over the southern periphery of the system with mid-level dry air entrainment. Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear remain favorable.
TC 09P is forecast to track eastward to east-southeastward under the steering influence of the ridge through 72 hours. The system will maintain intensity at 35 knots through 36 hours due to dry air entrainment, as well as increasing mid-level vertical wind shear.
After 36 hours, the system will intensify slowly as vertical wind shear decreases, the core environment moistens and poleward outflow improves. After 72 hours, TC 09P will gradually turn southeastward along the western flank of a building subtropical ridge to the east.
Track speeds will increase after 72 hours as the system tracks within the enhanced flow between the ridge and a broad mid-latitude trough. The system will peak at 55 knots by 96 hours, then weaken slightly, however, this portion of the intensity forecast is uncertain due to possible dry air entrainment, and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures.