By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98P…which is located approximately 186 NM northwest of Weipa, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a weakly-defined low level circulation with flaring convection.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable development for tropical cyclone formation with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, moderate poleward outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will continue to track eastward and develop within the next 48-72hrs.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.